WHAT IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THING
ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS EPIDEMIC?
Theo Pavlidis
I share the
view that the most significant thing about the pandemic is that it exposed the
United States as a dysfunctional country that did an extremely poor job in defending
its people against this natural disaster. There have been several published
articles on this issue. The first one I saw is
“Coronavirus
Makes America Seem Like a Civilization in Decline” by Noah Smith in Bloomberg Opinion on March 29, 2020, 8:00 AM
EDT. Subtitled “The
Covid-19 crisis is another example of the nation’s inability to
effectively respond to pressing challenges.” A quote from the article: “No advanced
nation has responded as poorly. Returning it to glory will require cultivating
a sense of national solidarity that crosses racial lines while rooting out the
entrenched power of special interests.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-29/coronavirus-makes-america-seem-like-a-civilization-in-decline?cmpid=BBD033020_OUS&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=200330&utm_campaign=openamericas
The latest (and quite thorough) is
“We Are Living in a Failed State” by George Packer in a preview of the
June 2020 issue of The Atlantic magazine. Subtitled “The coronavirus didn’t
break America. It revealed what was already broken.” https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/
These views can be contrasted with the view held by several politicians as well as demonstrators in several American cities that the severity of the pandemic has been exaggerated. So how serious an ailment is an infection by the Coronavirus? I have constructed a table showing the number of deaths per million (dpm) for different countries or other geographical areas. Unfortunately, it is hard to get reliable data. I have relied on worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) data that I have checked against data published in newspapers and other sources. I have excluded countries and areas where there was too big a discrepancy among sources. See https://www.worldometers.info/about/ for background information. In the case of New York State, I list the lowest and the highest numbers that I found. It turns out that the higher number includes deaths that were, according to authorities, probably due to coronavirus. Because the dpm varies so much from country to country[TP1] , the rankings are fairly robust (see the note next to the table).
The death rate varies a lot, from almost 1 in 1000 (for New York State) down to 1 in 3 million (for Taiwan). Are we talking about the same affliction? Indeed, we are. The big variable is the response of each country or state. Imposing a severe social distancing early on and having widely available test kits does the trick.
This is the case with South Korea and the other Asian countries at the end of the list. The Confucian culture that encourages obedience to the state also helped. German culture also encourages such an obedience and that explains the relatively low number for that country; about one sixth that of France.
The Scandinavian countries offer another example. All, except Sweden, imposed severe social distancing and their rates are much lower (by factors between 2.5 and 9) than those of Sweden.
An article in The Atlantic by Todd S. Purdum describes in detail the California case where the early imposition of social distancing resulted in a very low death rate. (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-california-gavin-newsom/610006/)
In short, early severe social distancing (and availability of test kits) can cut the death rate by a factor of 50 or more. So, we should not ask how serious the epidemic is but how serious the government of a country is in fighting the epidemic. That conclusion shows how off the mark the current protests are.
Note: I am grateful to Eugene Joseph for recommending the article by George Packer.
Ranking of several countries and some
of the U.S. states
according to the number of deaths per million (dpm) caused by the Coronavirus.
While there
is uncertainty about the exact number of deaths in a country, it is unlikely to
affect the order for countries that are far apart in the rankings.
Let us
assume that the actual number of deaths is at most twice the number given and that
an overcount is unlikely. If a country has the hypothetical maximum it may
overtake a country ahead of it (in number of deaths per million) that has an
accurate count. For example, the U.S. may move ahead of U.K. but not ahead of
France.
In short,
the table gives an accurate picture of the relative performance of different
countries in dealing with the pandemic.
Country or State |
Deaths per
million |
Hypothetical Maximum |
New York |
740 - 933 |
n/a |
|
|
|
Belgium |
490 |
980 |
New Jersey |
473 |
946 |
Spain |
454 |
908 |
Italy |
390 |
780 |
Connecticut |
315 |
630 |
France |
302 |
604 |
Michigan |
240 |
480 |
United Kingdom |
237 |
474 |
|
|
|
Sweden |
152 |
304 |
United
States |
122 |
244 |
Pennsylvania |
97 |
194 |
Washington |
86 |
172 |
|
|
|
Denmark |
61 |
122 |
Germany |
55 |
110 |
Austria |
50 |
100 |
Canada |
42 |
84 |
|
|
|
Norway |
30 |
60 |
California |
30 |
60 |
Israel |
20 |
40 |
Finland |
17 |
34 |
|
|
|
Utah |
9 |
18 |
S. Korea |
5 |
10 |
|
|
|
Hong Kong |
0.5 |
1 |
Taiwan |
0.3 |
0.6 |